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#10032894 - 04/02/21 05:32 AM dat real estate v.2021
Risky Business Offline
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Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 43224
We had a thread on this from a year ago, a new thread is worthy of a discussion considering where things are at. Looking to see what others are seeing.

Tail end of Jan and all of February were completely insane for detached, anything and everything was set for a bidding war and going on a face ripping rally. Condos were sluggish, but picking up, then here we are in April everything is changing by the day.

Detached cooling off, prices staying high, condos now ripping (building dependent).

Couple of examples.
Worked with a few investor clients, 1 particular example I am intrigued by: Downtown condo, solid building, sat listed since November. I made an offer, some back and forth got it for $796/sq. ft, which is roughly what they went for in ‘16/’17. This was in the dead of winter, no one was buying, new lockdown announced, client was nervous.
Fast forward 3 months to today, same building, last unit sold at $1,020/sq. ft. $150k ‘gain’

Listed another condo on the bay corridor 2 weeks ago, wasn’t too keen on sellng it because it had a tenant on a fixed term until end of summer, you usually take a haircut on these listings. Told my buddy to list regardless to see if the lack of inventory will prevail, if not just terminate and relist later. Sure enough, even with a subpar tenant on paper on offer night we got out with a firm offer and got maybe 5k-10k less than what it would’ve gone vacant. Still a win here, 'over asking' bro ;\) wow such amaze, many triggered.

Detached Markham/Toronto which are predominantly my stomping grounds, just a shitshow. From the back to back 60 showings, 30 offers on a typical detached listing, I’d have to say more than 50% of listings with offers dates that I am watching are now failing, houses are getting relisted at ask, not selling and then terminating. You will get the odd sales now in March that still breaks a record mostly because uninformed buyers, but it’s a wild west.

Big wild card now is the fear put into everyone with Bank of Canada revisiting the interest rate hike. Literally 4 months ago there were promises of no hikes until 2023, it’s now on the table…no shit.

Never a dull moment. How things have changed in 12 months from what was a pretty uncertain time.

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#10032946 - 04/02/21 08:49 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
loudsubz Offline
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Registered: 08/16/01
Posts: 11330
Loc: Ontario, Canada
I can't even fathom buying a house these days. Back 10 years ago when we first bought we were the only offer and got it 10k less than asking. Now I hear you basically have to offer as much as you're comfortable spending and hope you get accepted lol
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#10032972 - 04/02/21 09:34 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: loudsubz]
porschetr Offline
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Registered: 05/15/01
Posts: 23358
Loc: WBridge
Vaughan market is just stupid hot. Woodbridge especially
Houses that were selling for 1 ~ 1.1M a couple months ago is now 1.3~ 1.5M
Ive been looking aggressivly and regretting not buying it last year.

Looked at a house listed for 1.29M
It was terrible. Sunk backyard, broken elevator for wheel chair taking a big chunk of space, dirry,
Original AC from 1970 that probably doesn't work.
It was sold early for 1.37M.





A couple of days later a house listed for 1.35M.
Made an appointment to see but the seller cancelled it saying they just took the first high offer.
Sold in a day for 1.45M
That was last weekend.




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#10032990 - 04/02/21 09:53 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: loudsubz]
Risky Business Offline
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Posts: 43224
 Originally Posted By: loudsubz
I can't even fathom buying a house these days. Back 10 years ago when we first bought we were the only offer and got it 10k less than asking. Now I hear you basically have to offer as much as you're comfortable spending and hope you get accepted lol


It's pretty bad, being on the listing side of a few of these it's crazy to see how:

1. Uneducated realtors are and how they are pushing their clients into total junk.
2. How much help people are getting from their parents.
3. I went firm on a deal on one listing, guy couldn't get financing after being 'pre approved' either place didn't appraise for purchase price or he did something stupid like buy/lease a car between pre approval and purchase...parent had to co sign for him to close.

Sucks being a buyer, it sucked especially in February. Things are better and reality is if you are buying and selling you have a natural hedge, up market or down market. Being a first time home buyer sucks, might as well keep waiting it out.

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#10032994 - 04/02/21 09:55 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: porschetr]
Risky Business Offline
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Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 43224
 Originally Posted By: porschetr

It was terrible. Sunk backyard, broken elevator for wheel chair taking a big chunk of space, dirry,
Original AC from 1970 that probably doesn't work.





If things like these are deal breakers for you, I have a surprise for you...you will never buy. Short of material deficiencies all houses will require some work...what you listed in nothing $ wise compared to purchase price. You are better off buyng pre con if you can afford it than trying to get into the resale market.

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#10032997 - 04/02/21 10:00 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
porschetr Offline
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Registered: 05/15/01
Posts: 23358
Loc: WBridge
That's not the point.
That was the worst conditioned house out of a dozen I looked at in the area.
It sold for 1.37M.
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#10033062 - 04/02/21 11:22 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: porschetr]
Risky Business Offline
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Posts: 43224
The fact that you can get a detached in this market for that price is a win, that's a townhouse in many places.
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#10033165 - 04/02/21 12:52 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
Raocorp Offline
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Registered: 10/10/02
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Loc: Toronto
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
The fact that you can get a detached in this market for that price is a win, that's a townhouse in many places.


Sadly I will likely never own a detached home in the city. I have no parents help and will not qualify for a $1M plus mortgage. even 10% down is $100k in cash, plus closing costs, plus needed repairs.

I don't mind moving out of the city tbh tho, just have to either a) continue to be able to work from home with my T.O job (unlikely) or b) find a job in the area where i'd be moving to. At this rate, I'll be moving to North Bay.

Vas, you're a realtor now?

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#10033306 - 04/02/21 02:47 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Raocorp]
Risky Business Offline
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Things should cool off, lots of ppl getting nervous since as of this week BoC said rate hikes aren't off limits, yet a few months ago they said no rate hikes until 2023. If anything brings prices back to reality it will be a rate hike.

If you are serious about moving north, look into cities part of the Feds RNIP initiative, I have a few ppl looking for multiplexes up there since cap rates are solid and they are attracting better rents. Sudbury road trip! If you get a 6 plex and live in one you can get solid LTV and up to 40 year amorts. You will effectively get paid to live there. I mean doe sit matter where we play COD from?

Yes, full time Realtor now...since there was a shortage and all \:D

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#10033343 - 04/02/21 03:28 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
zaius Offline
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Registered: 04/30/05
Posts: 8321
Loc: Toronto
how can anyone afford over $1.5M for a detached is beyond me.

that's almost $3M of pre-tax income or 30 years making $100k going straight into a house. you gotta marry rich.
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#10033376 - 04/02/21 04:02 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: zaius]
Hatorade Offline
pheggit
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Registered: 11/05/99
Posts: 26886
Loc: Toronto, ON
 Originally Posted By: zaius
how can anyone afford over $1.5M for a detached is beyond me.

that's almost $3M of pre-tax income or 30 years making $100k going straight into a house. you gotta marry rich.


People that own property already and selling/buying is where a lot of this money is coming from. One of my current clients bought a condo downtown 6 years ago and after selling it they now have a 40% downpayment on a $1M home with money leftover for renos. Where it's sucking is for first time home owners.

RB has only touched the service on how insane the market was back in Jan/Feb. I was in situations where there were 40 offers, yes not a typo. 40 fucking offers and that's for a house that was only on the market for 5 days.

It's better now, but people are still paying a premium for homes. It's not even about whether the buyers agents are doing a shitty job educating their clients. Truth be told listing agents don't even know how much a home will sell right now as all it takes is that one buyer that is willing to pay a premium, whether it's because they really love it or have lost out on multiple offers and on every missed house means the next one is going to be more. See where this is going?

Also biggest pet peeve are the idiot agents all saying SOLD FOR OVER ASKING. Fuck off, unless you listed at market and it sold for over asking sure go gloat. But fucking listing a house for $800k when it's $1.3M is horse shit.


Edited by Hatorade (04/02/21 04:02 PM)
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I thought Spark was a robot from the old movie and I kind of remember seeing him telling some engineer showing the equation for a clear metal that the guy would event years later - porschetr

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#10033429 - 04/02/21 05:06 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: zaius]
Risky Business Offline
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Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 43224
 Originally Posted By: zaius
how can anyone afford over $1.5M for a detached is beyond me.

that's almost $3M of pre-tax income or 30 years making $100k going straight into a house. you gotta marry rich.


What hator said, a lot of people are moving up and have a natural hedge of selling high and buying high.

The biggest factor however is that interest rates dropped significantly (Fixed has gone up in the last month however). I don't have the numbers in front of me but since covid the rate drop increased purchasing power roughly by 20%, which is reflected in price appreciation (even though appreciation disproportionately outpaced purchasing power).

Being a first time buyer right now is not worth it unless you are comfortable carrying such a large amount or have help from parents (majority do).

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#10033430 - 04/02/21 05:08 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Hatorade]
Risky Business Offline
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Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 43224
 Originally Posted By: Hatorade
 Originally Posted By: zaius
how can anyone afford over $1.5M for a detached is beyond me.

that's almost $3M of pre-tax income or 30 years making $100k going straight into a house. you gotta marry rich.


People that own property already and selling/buying is where a lot of this money is coming from. One of my current clients bought a condo downtown 6 years ago and after selling it they now have a 40% downpayment on a $1M home with money leftover for renos. Where it's sucking is for first time home owners.

RB has only touched the service on how insane the market was back in Jan/Feb. I was in situations where there were 40 offers, yes not a typo. 40 fucking offers and that's for a house that was only on the market for 5 days.

It's better now, but people are still paying a premium for homes. It's not even about whether the buyers agents are doing a shitty job educating their clients. Truth be told listing agents don't even know how much a home will sell right now as all it takes is that one buyer that is willing to pay a premium, whether it's because they really love it or have lost out on multiple offers and on every missed house means the next one is going to be more. See where this is going?

Also biggest pet peeve are the idiot agents all saying SOLD FOR OVER ASKING. Fuck off, unless you listed at market and it sold for over asking sure go gloat. But fucking listing a house for $800k when it's $1.3M is horse shit.


I am buying you a vanity plate as a present. Who is in for a group buy?

SLDOVRSK

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#10033556 - 04/02/21 09:20 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
355-Si Offline
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Registered: 08/19/01
Posts: 4352
Loc: Toronto, Ontario
We recently bought a house post-February.

I didn’t mind buying high because the hope was to sell high in the same market.

Bought at 1.2, but sold at 835 (I bought the house for $340k 9 years ago.)

Our rate is 1.40% variable.

Our realtor just put “sold” above the sign, even though it sold for above market appraised value.

I couldn’t imagine being a first time home buyer right now.
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#10033632 - 04/03/21 05:36 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: 355-Si]
Risky Business Offline
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Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 43224
Congrats on the new purchase!

This is a perfect example of a natural hedge, I obviously don't know the exact numbers, but will run them here for illustrative purposes as I think you are a good case study. In particular moving up from a smaller place into a bigger place, you generally have 2 advantages. On a relative % basis cheaper/smaller homes appreciated more than larger homes, also once you crack over the $1M mark you have less competition as you need 20% down to buy. This is area dependent, in some places it's completely incorrect, but by and large it holds some truth.



Here is why you have a natural hedge. The total mortgage amount is a little higher, but your payment is lower and more of it is going to principal anyway. If you match the normal scenario payment then you are coming out ahead. The risk here is interest rates, but in general whether you move in a crazy or down market at the moment in time it's all a wash. The risk is in long term exposure to interest rates, which we are all at risk for anyway.

Existing owners are hedged, new buyers are priced out.




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#10033728 - 04/03/21 02:49 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
Screamin Type ARGH! Offline
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Registered: 02/20/01
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shit be crayyyyyyyyy
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#10033823 - 04/03/21 10:32 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Screamin Type ARGH!]
A2B-Lexus Offline
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Registered: 04/19/01
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Loc: Raptors Land
i moved to McCowan and 16th in Sept 2019. We paid 1.1M for 2 car garage detached house. Now, the area is 1.7M+.

There has been thought of moving back to 16th and 9th and being mortgage free if moving wasn't such a pain and other factor like help from family, school zone.

To think I bought my first condo 485sq ft condo at "Downtown" Markham back for 169k back in 2005. (I'd be laughing if I kept that....)

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#10033849 - 04/04/21 05:33 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: A2B-Lexus]
Risky Business Offline
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Cornell isn't cheap either.
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#10033880 - 04/04/21 10:09 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
Hatorade Offline
pheggit
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Registered: 11/05/99
Posts: 26886
Loc: Toronto, ON
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
Cornell isn't cheap either.


Yup. There really isn't anywhere that is "cheap" now. Even Jane and Finch has gone up A LOT.
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'07 997.1 GT3
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I thought Spark was a robot from the old movie and I kind of remember seeing him telling some engineer showing the equation for a clear metal that the guy would event years later - porschetr

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#10033889 - 04/04/21 10:35 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Hatorade]
355-Si Offline
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Loc: Toronto, Ontario
Million dollar semis in the Jane and Wilson corridor lol
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#10033897 - 04/04/21 12:02 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: 355-Si]
Risky Business Offline
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Registered: 05/17/10
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The worst I've seen are suburbs outside of kitchener, like 20min outside of the city in the middle of a farm field are now a million.

outside of KITCHENER

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#10033944 - 04/04/21 08:46 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
A2B-Lexus Offline
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Loc: Raptors Land
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
Cornell isn't cheap either.


"Cheaper"....but its super small lots.

The ones with the coach houses in the back would be decent. Get someone to pay for part of your mortgage.

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#10033968 - 04/05/21 05:03 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: A2B-Lexus]
Risky Business Offline
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Those are awesome, they were around 1.4M last year, that's when I stopped looking.
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#10034159 - 04/05/21 01:58 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
355-Si Offline
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Registered: 08/19/01
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Loc: Toronto, Ontario
Are you still in York Region?
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#10034180 - 04/05/21 02:50 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: A2B-Lexus]
furball Offline
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Loc: Toronto, ON
I remember looking at those ... I was asking around, and ... at the time, it was ~$55k or so for that coach piece .. I was like wtf who would want to live atop a garage....

 Originally Posted By: A2B-Lexus
The ones with the coach houses in the back would be decent. Get someone to pay for part of your mortgage.

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#10034244 - 04/05/21 05:44 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
LNXGUY Moderator Offline
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Registered: 08/06/00
Posts: 104373
Loc: Barrie, Ont,
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
The worst I've seen are suburbs outside of kitchener, like 20min outside of the city in the middle of a farm field are now a million.

outside of KITCHENER


Buddy just dropped a cool mil on a place out there, lol.
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#10034375 - 04/05/21 10:01 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: furball]
A2B-Lexus Offline
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Registered: 04/19/01
Posts: 45548
Loc: Raptors Land
 Originally Posted By: furball
I remember looking at those ... I was asking around, and ... at the time, it was ~$55k or so for that coach piece .. I was like wtf who would want to live atop a garage....

 Originally Posted By: A2B-Lexus
The ones with the coach houses in the back would be decent. Get someone to pay for part of your mortgage.


Markham Stouffville is a quick walk away. I'd think there would be nurses (who is ideally hot and young) that would want to rent one. LOL

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#10034411 - 04/06/21 04:43 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: A2B-Lexus]
Risky Business Offline
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Those coach houses rent really well, I went and looked at few...I've seen some get $1,800/month.
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#10034481 - 04/06/21 08:53 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
Screamin Type ARGH! Offline
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Registered: 02/20/01
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new brunswick looking mighty tempting right now lulz
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#10034570 - 04/06/21 10:57 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Screamin Type ARGH!]
c2k Moderator Offline
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Loc: Wiesloch-Walldorf, Germany
Im wondering if the rising house prices are due to a higher amount of people working from home? Under the potential false pretense that they will work from home forever?

If that is the case, they are in for a rude awakening if they get recalled back to the office.
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#10034779 - 04/06/21 02:42 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: LNXGUY]
Balhar Offline
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my sister lives on the very north EDGE of Waterloo, like the last house before the fields and then St Jacobs. 2 bedroom bungalow on her street listed for 800 and sold for 1.1
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#10034790 - 04/06/21 02:53 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Balhar]
c2k Moderator Offline
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Registered: 05/21/00
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Loc: Wiesloch-Walldorf, Germany
 Originally Posted By: Balhar
my sister lives on the very north EDGE of Waterloo, like the last house before the fields and then St Jacobs. 2 bedroom bungalow on her street listed for 800 and sold for 1.1


I love St. Jacobs, but 1.1?
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#10034965 - 04/06/21 07:45 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: c2k]
PhoenixrageElmie Offline
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#10034992 - 04/06/21 08:40 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: PhoenixrageElmie]
robbbby Offline
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Registered: 01/23/02
Posts: 15428
Loc: Canada
Shit down here is absolutely nuts as well. My sister wants to sell her condo in downtown toronto and move back home. She's been outbid so many times it is insane. Her budget last year was 750 but now she is realizing she needs 850-900 to get anything close to what she wants.

I bought my house for $157k 12 years ago. Exact same house as mine one street over sold last week for $650k. Only difference is a pool and about 30' more property behind the house.

I think homes down here were always undervalued but now it's just ridiculous. Not GTA level insanity, but for this county it is just nuts. I'd be fucked if I had to buy a home today.

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#10035028 - 04/06/21 09:59 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
A2B-Lexus Offline
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Registered: 04/19/01
Posts: 45548
Loc: Raptors Land
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
Those coach houses rent really well, I went and looked at few...I've seen some get $1,800/month.


There are some that sit above 3 garages that's pretty big.

$1800 would be worth like $350k or so in mortgage. \:o

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