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#10367971 - 12/18/22 05:42 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
zaius Offline
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Registered: 04/30/05
Posts: 8562
Loc: Toronto
yup. i got that piece of yellow paper. scared me at first thinking i missed some sort of bill payment.

couple thoughts:

i donít understand if youíre elderly, how the f are you going to go online and submit the declaration? there doesnít seem to be any other option.

also, this yearly thing is going to get annoying fast... and thereís no way no one will declare their house vacant to pay more taxes. pretty pointless to me.
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looks stock.

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#10368114 - 12/18/22 05:05 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: zaius]
Big Tasty Offline
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Registered: 02/10/02
Posts: 19558
Loc: Toronto
I would think they could easily monitor water or electricity consumption for homes to determine which is vacant or not without having people filling out these online declarations.
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#10368132 - 12/18/22 06:21 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Big Tasty]
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You are giving the city staffers way to much credit.
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#10391447 - 02/17/23 07:26 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
furball Offline
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Registered: 09/24/03
Posts: 9481
Loc: Toronto, ON
sob story: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/th...tmare-1.6750229

The car payments sounds stupid.

The home insurance cost looks fishy.



https://www.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/c...h_2022_why_this



Edited by furball (02/17/23 07:30 PM)

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#10391449 - 02/17/23 07:28 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: furball]
furball Offline
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Registered: 09/24/03
Posts: 9481
Loc: Toronto, ON
China mortgage situ ...

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/17/economy/china-mortgage-age-95-property-market-intl-hnk/index.html

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#10391487 - 02/18/23 08:58 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: furball]
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OFSI is planning to extend mortgage amorts for anyone here looking to renew and can't afford their new payments, will not be available for new mortgage originations. Effectively the same thing as China, just pass it on to the next generation.

Pretty surprised how resilient prices have been despite how much purchasing power has been eroded. Still feel there is more room to go down, at best stay sideways.

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#10393013 - 02/22/23 02:33 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
Screamin Type ARGH! Offline
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Posts: 47588
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^ yup..like wth homes back to battles and selling 100-220k over asking all over...derp city, ppl don't gAF lol. meantime rates been up up up and supposed to stop, but fucking BoC says maybe another hike

re. OFSI...it's fucked our markets (and society here at least) has come to this. may as well take advantage tho. rate hikes tame 'inflation' only so much but this time it seems to be different and it isn't having the same impact. if anything it's just hurting us all more with nutso fast rate increase after so long/so cheap interest. they can't just flick the switch like this.
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#10393496 - 02/23/23 06:09 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Screamin Type ARGH!]
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We are definitely getting another hike, already priced in.
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#10396263 - 02/28/23 10:24 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
furball Offline
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Registered: 09/24/03
Posts: 9481
Loc: Toronto, ON
Twitter summary:

- People buy a new house (Brampton) March 2022 with a 90 day closing $1.9M purchase price
- Sell their old home FIRM $1.56M also long closing
- Need a 55 Day Bridge Loan for because new house closes first and old house 55 days later
- CIBC ponies up $1.9M which is a $1.38M mortgage plus the Bridge
- New Home purchase closes BUT Old House sale FAILS 55 days later
- Sweet Jaysus, what a mess, time to Re-list sell fast
- Now the total fckery begins: the value of both properties has FALLEN
- But Seller keeps Listing at $1.5M+ on old house because they need proceeds to pay off the Bridge Loan
- Finally when they call me: they have decided to drop to $1.35M to sell
- But wait it gets worse
- Because there are 2 mortgages AND a Bridge Loan to pay (nearby 9% Interest on the $500K Bridge) the owners took out a $120K Private Second Mortgage just to keep payments going
- Now they can sell old house for $1.35M pay off the Bank First Mortgage and Private on old but SHORT
- 335K to pay off the Bridge on New House
- Come to us looking for a Private Second to go to likely 96% Loan to Value on the New House to pay off the CIBC Bridge
- That's never going to happen
- Total Disaster
- Maybe the most interesting thing they said was: CIBC is very patient
- They say CIBC has a few of these all the GTA and they "Understand the problem"
- No one should call them reckless or dumb, these poor people just got caught in the WORST possible moment in time
- Likely both homes will need to be sold and all equity lost and likely still owe CIBC


https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1630574280202174464?s=46&t=qmLsFYDVYFOl9AZgOTXXIw


Edited by furball (02/28/23 10:25 PM)

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#10396291 - 03/01/23 05:13 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: furball]
SuPeR-MaRiO Offline
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Registered: 06/28/01
Posts: 6102
Loc: Toronto, Ontario
 Quote:
Likely both homes will need to be sold and all equity lost and likely still owe CIBC

Damn \:\(

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#10396354 - 03/01/23 09:25 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: SuPeR-MaRiO]
Simon_the_Pieman Offline
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Registered: 08/13/01
Posts: 9441
Loc: The A
 Originally Posted By: SuPeR-MaRiO
 Quote:
Likely both homes will need to be sold and all equity lost and likely still owe CIBC

Damn \:\(


holy fuck
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#10396760 - 03/02/23 05:03 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: furball]
Risky Business Offline
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Registered: 05/17/10
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 Originally Posted By: furball
Twitter summary:

- People buy a new house (Brampton) March 2022 with a 90 day closing $1.9M purchase price
- Sell their old home FIRM $1.56M also long closing
- Need a 55 Day Bridge Loan for because new house closes first and old house 55 days later
- CIBC ponies up $1.9M which is a $1.38M mortgage plus the Bridge
- New Home purchase closes BUT Old House sale FAILS 55 days later
- Sweet Jaysus, what a mess, time to Re-list sell fast
- Now the total fckery begins: the value of both properties has FALLEN
- But Seller keeps Listing at $1.5M+ on old house because they need proceeds to pay off the Bridge Loan
- Finally when they call me: they have decided to drop to $1.35M to sell
- But wait it gets worse
- Because there are 2 mortgages AND a Bridge Loan to pay (nearby 9% Interest on the $500K Bridge) the owners took out a $120K Private Second Mortgage just to keep payments going
- Now they can sell old house for $1.35M pay off the Bank First Mortgage and Private on old but SHORT
- 335K to pay off the Bridge on New House
- Come to us looking for a Private Second to go to likely 96% Loan to Value on the New House to pay off the CIBC Bridge
- That's never going to happen
- Total Disaster
- Maybe the most interesting thing they said was: CIBC is very patient
- They say CIBC has a few of these all the GTA and they "Understand the problem"
- No one should call them reckless or dumb, these poor people just got caught in the WORST possible moment in time
- Likely both homes will need to be sold and all equity lost and likely still owe CIBC


https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1630574280202174464?s=46&t=qmLsFYDVYFOl9AZgOTXXIw


These situations are so wild, I had an experience like this in Feb 2022, client bought and we immediately listed, but it just so happened that it was right when the war started and rates kept going up. Bridge loan at the time for them was like 3k/day from what I remember. Thankfully they were in a solid financial position, the rug pull did end up costing a couple hundred k. Sometimes you can't time these things and with the speed at the which markets move in general (even the RE market) you have to be super diligent and sometimes act fast even if it's at the expense of not getting "top" dollar, just to have the piece of mind.

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#10396891 - 03/02/23 11:42 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
furball Offline
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Registered: 09/24/03
Posts: 9481
Loc: Toronto, ON
Holy fuck ... these bridge loans are like loan shark sums.... $3k/day? WTF?

We were fortunate with our Markham > Burlington close ... I think it was 6 days, and we stretched it on purpose to alleviate stress on moving out ASAP ... Never realized it was that expensive.

Come to think of it, I can't even remember what happened first. IIRC we bought Burlington first, then listed Markham, since the market was so hot in 2019...


Edited by furball (03/02/23 11:43 AM)

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#10396895 - 03/02/23 11:53 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: furball]
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Depends on the loan amount, the properties they were moving to and from were around the 1.5M-$2M mark, the issue is that it was around May when we quoted it and with the market being dead and rates rising the 'risk premium' attached to these products was wild. We worked around it, but yea things are wild.
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#10443760 - 06/15/23 08:14 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
furball Offline
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Registered: 09/24/03
Posts: 9481
Loc: Toronto, ON
random loss porn I got sent...


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#10443794 - 06/15/23 09:23 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: furball]
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That's pretty bad, damn.
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#10443842 - 06/15/23 11:22 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
Hatorade Offline
pheggit
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Registered: 11/05/99
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Kitchener...
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#10444051 - 06/15/23 06:32 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Hatorade]
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wasteland lol
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#10444263 - 06/16/23 12:35 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
Simon_the_Pieman Offline
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Registered: 08/13/01
Posts: 9441
Loc: The A
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
wasteland lol


glad i got out of kw when i did!
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#10444310 - 06/16/23 02:34 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Simon_the_Pieman]
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You are the luckiest person I know, timing was impeccable. Someone is holding that bag now.

I sold my own unit last month, feeling pretty good about it.

Now on the prowl for that multiplex play

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#10444337 - 06/16/23 03:38 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
Simon_the_Pieman Offline
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Registered: 08/13/01
Posts: 9441
Loc: The A
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
You are the luckiest person I know, timing was impeccable. Someone is holding that bag now.

I sold my own unit last month, feeling pretty good about it.

Now on the prowl for that multiplex play


multi-tenant babyyyyyy!
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#10459501 - 07/25/23 05:27 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Simon_the_Pieman]
c2k Moderator Offline
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Markham is not a shithole? you can't even drive anywhere unless you leave the house at 5am to get down on the 404.
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#10459852 - 07/25/23 03:41 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: c2k]
ehko Offline
Quit being gay...
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Registered: 10/16/01
Posts: 5396
Loc: Barrie, Ontario
What's the Downtown Toronto market looking like right now? Thinking about buying something I can live in part time...
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#10459936 - 07/25/23 06:19 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: ehko]
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It will come down to where downtown, which building, and if you care about views/parking/amenities/etc.

I sold my Bay condo in May and broke the record per square foot for 1 bedrooms by a substantial amount. Same building now 2 months in and listings are sitting.

Seasonally the best times to buy are July/August and December/January, the least amount of activity.

Right now I can tell you anecdotally unless it's a banger unit in a sought after building it's going to sit, otherwise the sought after stuff still moves without issues.

Here is a video I did recently that breaks down state of affairs and what to expect based on seasonal trends:

https://youtu.be/f3VXDt17JOM

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#10459939 - 07/25/23 06:24 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
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On the flip side I had a buyer client, didn't care about price all he wanted is a specific building, specific exposure, specific views. We got it and it was $$$


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#10459992 - 07/25/23 09:45 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
Simon_the_Pieman Offline
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excellent candle choice.
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#10460012 - 07/26/23 04:07 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Simon_the_Pieman]
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Good to know, also not surprising. Client is bougie.
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#10460042 - 07/26/23 07:45 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
c2k Moderator Offline
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What about condos in the Dan Leckie / fort york area?
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#10460125 - 07/26/23 10:40 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: c2k]
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Dan Leckie I wouldn't touch with a 10' pole.

Fort York, building dependent. As an investor some units there can make sense, as an end user I wouldn't go to either of these locations.

Depends on what you want, if you are in your early to mid 20's Fort York can be good value.

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#10461369 - 07/28/23 07:57 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
furball Offline
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Fort York IMO feels like ..... such a dead zone. Nothing but concrete, industrial feel...
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#10461496 - 07/28/23 10:14 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: furball]
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Yea it's nothing special, but decent value and location.

If you want boutique/good vibe/character you have to go King West, Yorkville, etc.

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#10462447 - 07/31/23 11:09 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
c2k Moderator Offline
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Oh, I wasn't looking at it from an investor perspective but as a second residential.

How can an average Joe like myself get into the real estate investment market? How much capital do I need to front? How long will it take to get a passive income?
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#10462812 - 07/31/23 07:32 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: c2k]
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With current rates and prices of condos, personally I wouldn't bother. You'd be cashflow negative close to 1k/month on a typical rental at current interest rates. Need 20% down.

If you are looking for residential then you can probably get a deal on something as condos are sitting. I actually saw someone give a condo away today in the west end, sold well below market.

You can try to pick up an assignment unit where someone can't afford to close on it as the building is nearing completion. This is more for the veterans though.

In the GTA the simplest move is to get a detached/semi that you can get two rentals out of, maybe even 3 if space allows, close to a major transit area and sit and wait for rates to come down and refinance. These will all be 'grey market' rentals, you can pony up and make them legal, but most people don't. You take on the risk.

Personally I am looking at multifamily outside the GTA right now as the only thing that works. I looked at an 8 unit multi family for 1.1M that brought in 10k/month in rents. You can finance these with CMHC products at ~5% and 40 year amortizations, you are in the clear. You need to do renos, buy out tenants, deal with fuckery, but well worth it.

I also saw a crazy off market deal on incomplete construction sites, a few of these popping up now and selling for 65-80 cents on the dollar.

Person starts building custom, private lender pulls financing, if person is over leveraged it gets ugly quick. I saw someone put in 1.2M into a vacant land with permitting and foundation poured, can't unload it for 700k, has to sell primary residence now to settle all debts, it's a mess. Lots of opportunistic buying is happening, but nothing is without risk.

CN: Nothing is passive, it's all work. The more work/risk the higher the upside, all the low hanging fruit/easy buy/rent plays have the lowest returns.

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#10462830 - 07/31/23 07:52 PM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
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The condo I sold in May, I got $560k for it. The buyer that bought is paid 20% down, mortgage of 448k.

Monthly mortgage = 2,944
Maintenance = $350
Property Tax = $200
Insurance = $20
Amortized Land Transfer = 220

Total Carrying Cost = $3,734

They just rented it out for $2500

Cashflow negative = $1,234


This is what you call modern subsidized housing.

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#10464135 - 08/03/23 10:50 AM Re: dat real estate v.2021 [Re: Risky Business]
c2k Moderator Offline
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I appreciate your insight and the fact you aren't sugarcoating it. But let's be realistic, the interest rate won't be coming back down anytime soon, we've had historic low interest rates for nearly 20 years. Interest rate in the 5-7% range will be the new normal from now on.
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