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#9775488 - 04/05/20 02:13 PM real estate blog
Risky Business Offline
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With this lockdown and more time on my hands I decided to try and write out some research I already do on real estate. If you guys care to read, let me know your thoughts.

This is what boredom is pushing us to.

1st blog post br0

http://www.torfeno.com/home/torontos-condo-market-as-lockdown-measures-intensify

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#9775666 - 04/05/20 05:37 PM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Risky Business]
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Looks like we are going to have a condo rental shitshow. Had a few notifications of some pretty drastic lease reductions over the last 48 hours (downtown).

Almost a 1/3rd of all price reductions were 10%+ with the highest at 23% less from ask.

Here is the data for all price reductions for condos in W01, C01, C08 over the last 48 hours. That's a significant increase in volume and size of price reductions.

This is an interesting time to be a landlord, if you have tenants work with them so you don't have to compete with the shit that's about to roll downhill with what looks to be a flood of condos.


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#9775964 - 04/06/20 08:59 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Risky Business]
c2k Moderator Offline
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That's a great read, where are you getting your data/sources from?
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#9776001 - 04/06/20 09:33 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: c2k]
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Thanks man.

I had to get my license as it's the only way to get access to Stratus/Geowarehouse/etc. If you can't win, join them, as they say.

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#9776006 - 04/06/20 09:38 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Risky Business]
loudsubz Offline
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is it time for Euphoric to buy a house?
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#9776025 - 04/06/20 09:53 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: loudsubz]
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Nope, better hold out for the crash



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#9776268 - 04/06/20 01:08 PM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Risky Business]
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Neighbour just sold before C19 blew up. He sold over asking but according to him "On an artificially low asking price", they were hoping for bidding war but C19 starting hitting the fan so they made out by the skin of their teeth.
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#9776790 - 04/06/20 08:02 PM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Big Tasty]
4Three Offline
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Nice read. Honestly, I'm too dumb/poor to fully understand and then put to use, anything in your blog post. Still interesting tho.
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#9776802 - 04/06/20 08:21 PM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: 4Three]
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good read. same boat as most. no $$ to buy anymore real estate.
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#9776912 - 04/07/20 06:40 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: A2B-Lexus]
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I've been poking around different areas and have come to the conclusion that affluent areas/people not desperate the listings are being terminated/suspended which creates artificial scarcity of available inventory. If you look from Lawrence Park to Markham (some areas I've looked) you still see listings selling at over asking (seems like 50/50 over ask or at ask, very little under).

Downtown condos, very few terminations, leads me to believe people can't afford to net sell.

Going to pull some info today to see if it's time for Euphoric to jump in.

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#9776913 - 04/07/20 06:42 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Big Tasty]
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 Originally Posted By: Big Tasty
Neighbour just sold before C19 blew up. He sold over asking but according to him "On an artificially low asking price", they were hoping for bidding war but C19 starting hitting the fan so they made out by the skin of their teeth.


Is the deal closed? If it's not closed I wouldn't celebrate just yet just because it's "sold".

People are looking to get out of contracts left and right.

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#9776914 - 04/07/20 06:48 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: A2B-Lexus]
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 Originally Posted By: A2B-Lexus
good read. same boat as most. no $$ to buy anymore real estate.


One way to leverage if you have the balls is HELOC. If you currently have a HELOC one way I've considered playing it is taking all the money out and putting it in a different financial institution in a high interest savings account and have the cash sit on the sidelines.

Let's assume shit continues to trickle down, banks will reduce HELOC limits, I already had that happen to a business loan. If residential values go down it will most likely be the same impact on unused HELOCs. If you take the money and it sits in a different bank/credit union and you are making the minimum interest payment then you are good and the bank most likely won't/can't do shit. Why call a loan if you are making payments.

Depending on what your HELOC rate is, hopefully close to 3%, you can take the money and throw into a DUCA high interest savings account at 3%, the interest earned will covered interest paid, money is safe from being reduced.

My only issue with this is if the economy gets worse to the point where we need bailouts the banks are safe, I don't know about Credit Unions and the insurance on those accounts is up to 100k so there is a risk that you could get burned on money over a 100k.

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#9776978 - 04/07/20 08:13 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Risky Business]
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 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
 Originally Posted By: Big Tasty
Neighbour just sold before C19 blew up. He sold over asking but according to him "On an artificially low asking price", they were hoping for bidding war but C19 starting hitting the fan so they made out by the skin of their teeth.


Is the deal closed? If it's not closed I wouldn't celebrate just yet just because it's "sold".

People are looking to get out of contracts left and right.


Looking on Bungol it's still listed as sold...that's as much as I have to go on.

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#9776987 - 04/07/20 08:23 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Big Tasty]
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Yeah, I've got two friends closing their deals in the next few weeks. One deal was made after the pandemic/lockdown was declared so I'd think it's more likely to succeed.

The other deal is to two Indian families who will be sharing the house. I'd hope at least one of them still has a job and the deal can close.

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#9777022 - 04/07/20 09:00 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Risky Business]
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 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
 Originally Posted By: A2B-Lexus
good read. same boat as most. no $$ to buy anymore real estate.


One way to leverage if you have the balls is HELOC. If you currently have a HELOC one way I've considered playing it is taking all the money out and putting it in a different financial institution in a high interest savings account and have the cash sit on the sidelines.

Let's assume shit continues to trickle down, banks will reduce HELOC limits, I already had that happen to a business loan. If residential values go down it will most likely be the same impact on unused HELOCs. If you take the money and it sits in a different bank/credit union and you are making the minimum interest payment then you are good and the bank most likely won't/can't do shit. Why call a loan if you are making payments.

Depending on what your HELOC rate is, hopefully close to 3%, you can take the money and throw into a DUCA high interest savings account at 3%, the interest earned will covered interest paid, money is safe from being reduced.

My only issue with this is if the economy gets worse to the point where we need bailouts the banks are safe, I don't know about Credit Unions and the insurance on those accounts is up to 100k so there is a risk that you could get burned on money over a 100k.


\:o

That's fucking brilliant and I don't know why I didn't think of this years ago when I purchased the townhouse for rental. Although I no longer have a second property as it was becoming a headache to deal with tenant and issues with the property. I had the furnace shit the bed on me on the coldest day of the year and the AC shit the bed on me on the hottest day of the year. That was a great time.

Also, the water heater inside the house was mine and it was 9 years old before it started to rot at the bottom.

I ended up selling the townhouse to the people who were renting it from us, but we didn't lose money on the deal. It was more of a mental relief rather than a financial relief.

Do you have any prediction on how the real estate market will fare in the next 6 months or a year from now? I am still on the fence of getting another property, but not at the expense of my mental stress. It's either real estate or invest more into stocks.
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#9777024 - 04/07/20 09:01 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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I have lots of thoughts here but posting on a phone. I think mortgages are too high for people to have a massive drop in prices without shifting liability to lenders and screwing up credit. Besides they'll still need a place to live, this is assuming they're still employed. On a panic/worry alone why throw away equity?

On investment side I've been analyzing recently and found that over 10 yrs an index fund outperformed real estate bought in USA during the crash, blew my mind.

To invest a loan you need to also outrun the taxes so a 3% loan at 3% interest costs you money. I absolutely agree though if you want money take it when you don't need it. I have a client paying his equipment lease since last year to the broker in order to hold the loan and now that it's time to pay me the broker can't sell the loan. Omgwtf...

OP maybe I missed it which is entirely possible, but is this observation or is there a play here I missed?

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#9777087 - 04/07/20 09:58 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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 Originally Posted By: Senor Eduardo_82
Yeah, I've got two friends closing their deals in the next few weeks. One deal was made after the pandemic/lockdown was declared so I'd think it's more likely to succeed.

The other deal is to two Indian families who will be sharing the house. I'd hope at least one of them still has a job and the deal can close.


It's a tricky situation. Everything is really person dependent, if you have a job and can carry the house then close the deal, move on.

For those who have lost jobs/etc some of the things being offered are extending the closing dates, but you will have to give more deposit money for the favour. People are trying to work together, but again unprecedented times.

Would suck to be under contract right now for sure, no one knows where the market will be 6 months form now or where people's jobs/careers will be. If it was me I'd go through with whatever deal I did, if I can't afford it then you have to be prepared to lose the deposit or a portion of it depending if the seller signs off to a mutual release (probably not).

Market started off really hot so a lot of people are feeling like they overpaid right about now.

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#9777096 - 04/07/20 10:05 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: c2k]
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 Originally Posted By: c2k
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
 Originally Posted By: A2B-Lexus
good read. same boat as most. no $$ to buy anymore real estate.


One way to leverage if you have the balls is HELOC. If you currently have a HELOC one way I've considered playing it is taking all the money out and putting it in a different financial institution in a high interest savings account and have the cash sit on the sidelines.

Let's assume shit continues to trickle down, banks will reduce HELOC limits, I already had that happen to a business loan. If residential values go down it will most likely be the same impact on unused HELOCs. If you take the money and it sits in a different bank/credit union and you are making the minimum interest payment then you are good and the bank most likely won't/can't do shit. Why call a loan if you are making payments.

Depending on what your HELOC rate is, hopefully close to 3%, you can take the money and throw into a DUCA high interest savings account at 3%, the interest earned will covered interest paid, money is safe from being reduced.

My only issue with this is if the economy gets worse to the point where we need bailouts the banks are safe, I don't know about Credit Unions and the insurance on those accounts is up to 100k so there is a risk that you could get burned on money over a 100k.


\:o

That's fucking brilliant and I don't know why I didn't think of this years ago when I purchased the townhouse for rental. Although I no longer have a second property as it was becoming a headache to deal with tenant and issues with the property. I had the furnace shit the bed on me on the coldest day of the year and the AC shit the bed on me on the hottest day of the year. That was a great time.

Also, the water heater inside the house was mine and it was 9 years old before it started to rot at the bottom.

I ended up selling the townhouse to the people who were renting it from us, but we didn't lose money on the deal. It was more of a mental relief rather than a financial relief.

Do you have any prediction on how the real estate market will fare in the next 6 months or a year from now? I am still on the fence of getting another property, but not at the expense of my mental stress. It's either real estate or invest more into stocks.


I have no prediction, but definitely looking at the potential outcome of this whole thing.

Condos are the most at risk because investors/speculators/landlords/etc...if panic sets in and condos start getting unloaded that could cause panic across the board, here is what I am seeing over the last 72 hours:

https://www.torfeno.com/home/toronto-condos-april-7th-update

The government stimulus has a lot to do with this, if people see the light at the end of the tunnel and have the false sense of security from the EI/CERB benefits/whatever real estate usually lags by 3-6 months anyway. As of right now knowing how resilient GTA real estate is I honestly don't see anything drastic changing. Maybe back to 2018 price levels? In 2019 we became the 3rd tech capital in North America after San Francisco and Seattle...

Every time I thought this place will crash, it doesn't, so at this point I am reluctant to even speculate on that.

I think the big issue will be commercial and retail space, I have no idea how malls come out of this or a ton of the little industrial units you see all over the place. Government subsidies are not enough to keep it all afloat if this lasts past Q2 of this year imo. If we get a handle on the virus within two months and people start slowly going back to work we might be ok, beyond that I don't know. Probably more stimulus, which is a race to the bottom.

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#9777104 - 04/07/20 10:08 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: 87ZCSi]
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 Originally Posted By: 87ZCSi
I have lots of thoughts here but posting on a phone. I think mortgages are too high for people to have a massive drop in prices without shifting liability to lenders and screwing up credit. Besides they'll still need a place to live, this is assuming they're still employed. On a panic/worry alone why throw away equity?

On investment side I've been analyzing recently and found that over 10 yrs an index fund outperformed real estate bought in USA during the crash, blew my mind.

To invest a loan you need to also outrun the taxes so a 3% loan at 3% interest costs you money. I absolutely agree though if you want money take it when you don't need it. I have a client paying his equipment lease since last year to the broker in order to hold the loan and now that it's time to pay me the broker can't sell the loan. Omgwtf...

OP maybe I missed it which is entirely possible, but is this observation or is there a play here I missed?


The play is to transfer cash so you don't take a haircut if the banks try to reduce their exposure which they are actively doing. Having cash during a cash crunch would be nice.

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#9777107 - 04/07/20 10:09 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Big Tasty]
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 Originally Posted By: Big Tasty
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
 Originally Posted By: Big Tasty
Neighbour just sold before C19 blew up. He sold over asking but according to him "On an artificially low asking price", they were hoping for bidding war but C19 starting hitting the fan so they made out by the skin of their teeth.


Is the deal closed? If it's not closed I wouldn't celebrate just yet just because it's "sold".

People are looking to get out of contracts left and right.


Looking on Bungol it's still listed as sold...that's as much as I have to go on.


When did it sell?

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#9777188 - 04/07/20 10:59 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Risky Business]
Hatorade Offline
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A lot of retail will be toast. I just don't see how a lot of these guys will come out of this.
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'08 E90 M3
'11 E90 d
'02 Rota Grid - 195-55-16FR (RIP)
'04 Volk GTC - 245-35-19F/275-35-19R (Sold to a farm boi)
I thought Spark was a robot from the old movie and I kind of remember seeing him telling some engineer showing the equation for a clear metal that the guy would event years later - porschetr

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#9777291 - 04/07/20 11:43 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Risky Business]
87ZCSi Offline
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 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
 Originally Posted By: 87ZCSi
I have lots of thoughts here but posting on a phone. I think mortgages are too high for people to have a massive drop in prices without shifting liability to lenders and screwing up credit. Besides they'll still need a place to live, this is assuming they're still employed. On a panic/worry alone why throw away equity?

On investment side I've been analyzing recently and found that over 10 yrs an index fund outperformed real estate bought in USA during the crash, blew my mind.

To invest a loan you need to also outrun the taxes so a 3% loan at 3% interest costs you money. I absolutely agree though if you want money take it when you don't need it. I have a client paying his equipment lease since last year to the broker in order to hold the loan and now that it's time to pay me the broker can't sell the loan. Omgwtf...

OP maybe I missed it which is entirely possible, but is this observation or is there a play here I missed?


The play is to transfer cash so you don't take a haircut if the banks try to reduce their exposure which they are actively doing. Having cash during a cash crunch would be nice.

And after this is all done with the cash do you buy distress sale property, put in market, buy groceries if out of a job and savings depleted, wait and see, put it in your company? I'm interested in hearing the long game.

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#9777301 - 04/07/20 11:47 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Hatorade]
87ZCSi Offline
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 Originally Posted By: Hatorade
A lot of retail will be toast. I just don't see how a lot of these guys will come out of this.

What a lot of people don't realize is with all the money in the world and travel restrictions lifted and everything of the sort that there are no Goods to put back on the shelves once we buy everything that's already here. There will be a lag.

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#9777371 - 04/07/20 12:16 PM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: 87ZCSi]
Risky Business Offline
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 Originally Posted By: 87ZCSi
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
 Originally Posted By: 87ZCSi
I have lots of thoughts here but posting on a phone. I think mortgages are too high for people to have a massive drop in prices without shifting liability to lenders and screwing up credit. Besides they'll still need a place to live, this is assuming they're still employed. On a panic/worry alone why throw away equity?

On investment side I've been analyzing recently and found that over 10 yrs an index fund outperformed real estate bought in USA during the crash, blew my mind.

To invest a loan you need to also outrun the taxes so a 3% loan at 3% interest costs you money. I absolutely agree though if you want money take it when you don't need it. I have a client paying his equipment lease since last year to the broker in order to hold the loan and now that it's time to pay me the broker can't sell the loan. Omgwtf...

OP maybe I missed it which is entirely possible, but is this observation or is there a play here I missed?


The play is to transfer cash so you don't take a haircut if the banks try to reduce their exposure which they are actively doing. Having cash during a cash crunch would be nice.

And after this is all done with the cash do you buy distress sale property, put in market, buy groceries if out of a job and savings depleted, wait and see, put it in your company? I'm interested in hearing the long game.


All of the above I guess, for me personally would be distressed assets or plow back into business, whichever has a higher ROI. If lenders lend on securitized business assets then I am all for that distressed property search as diversification.

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#9777591 - 04/07/20 02:18 PM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Risky Business]
Big Tasty Offline
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 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
 Originally Posted By: Big Tasty
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
 Originally Posted By: Big Tasty
Neighbour just sold before C19 blew up. He sold over asking but according to him "On an artificially low asking price", they were hoping for bidding war but C19 starting hitting the fan so they made out by the skin of their teeth.


Is the deal closed? If it's not closed I wouldn't celebrate just yet just because it's "sold".

People are looking to get out of contracts left and right.


Looking on Bungol it's still listed as sold...that's as much as I have to go on.


When did it sell?


Sold March 12th according to bungol.

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#9777739 - 04/07/20 03:55 PM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: loudsubz]
robbbby Offline
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 Originally Posted By: loudsubz
is it time for Euphoric to buy a house?


WTF that dude is still around???? I thought he died in a roller blading accident.

How's he doing?

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#9778233 - 04/08/20 04:25 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Big Tasty]
Risky Business Offline
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 Originally Posted By: Big Tasty
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
 Originally Posted By: Big Tasty
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
 Originally Posted By: Big Tasty
Neighbour just sold before C19 blew up. He sold over asking but according to him "On an artificially low asking price", they were hoping for bidding war but C19 starting hitting the fan so they made out by the skin of their teeth.


Is the deal closed? If it's not closed I wouldn't celebrate just yet just because it's "sold".

People are looking to get out of contracts left and right.


Looking on Bungol it's still listed as sold...that's as much as I have to go on.


When did it sell?


Sold March 12th according to bungol.


I wouldn't celebrate just yet, with things being where they are he is at risk of the transaction not closing. Luckily for him (depending on how the contract was written) worst case it doesn't close he gets to keep the deposit or a part of it.

Checked Sales for the 15th, if it's the house i think it is there are no conditions on it so he might get lucky and it will go through most likely.

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#9778659 - 04/08/20 11:34 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Risky Business]
Hatorade Offline
pheggit
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Keeping the deposit is a long drawn process (up to a year) and meanwhile the house is in limbo.
_________________________

'07 997.1 GT3
'08 E90 M3
'11 E90 d
'02 Rota Grid - 195-55-16FR (RIP)
'04 Volk GTC - 245-35-19F/275-35-19R (Sold to a farm boi)
I thought Spark was a robot from the old movie and I kind of remember seeing him telling some engineer showing the equation for a clear metal that the guy would event years later - porschetr

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#9778760 - 04/08/20 12:40 PM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Hatorade]
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How does it work?

Let's say 50k down to broker held in escrow or with lawyer, buyer is unable to close due to x,y,z. Transaction falls apart, now deposit should technically belong to seller.

You don't agree to mutual release so then does it go to court, seller is defendant? Do you have to prove damages?

Why can't you sell the house to someone else in the meantime, I don't think the house is tied up as the deposit is a claim on the buyer not the seller, so no possibility of lien that I can think of.

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#9778766 - 04/08/20 12:43 PM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Risky Business]
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Here we go, credit squeeze is coming.
Scotia announced you can't use HELOC for DP on second property. That will put a damper on "investment" condos.

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#9778854 - 04/08/20 02:12 PM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Risky Business]
Hatorade Offline
pheggit
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From my understanding because there is a APS the sale is still binding unless a mutual release is done. Which is why the vendor can’t sell while they are disputing the APS.
_________________________

'07 997.1 GT3
'08 E90 M3
'11 E90 d
'02 Rota Grid - 195-55-16FR (RIP)
'04 Volk GTC - 245-35-19F/275-35-19R (Sold to a farm boi)
I thought Spark was a robot from the old movie and I kind of remember seeing him telling some engineer showing the equation for a clear metal that the guy would event years later - porschetr

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#9778985 - 04/08/20 04:27 PM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Risky Business]
87ZCSi Offline
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 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
Here we go, credit squeeze is coming.
Scotia announced you can't use HELOC for DP on second property. That will put a damper on "investment" condos.

Wouldn't you just need to move it somewhere else first? How closely do they look at origin of proceeds?

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#9778987 - 04/08/20 04:30 PM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Risky Business]
87ZCSi Offline
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 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
How does it work?

Let's say 50k down to broker held in escrow or with lawyer, buyer is unable to close due to x,y,z. Transaction falls apart, now deposit should technically belong to seller.

You don't agree to mutual release so then does it go to court, seller is defendant? Do you have to prove damages?

Why can't you sell the house to someone else in the meantime, I don't think the house is tied up as the deposit is a claim on the buyer not the seller, so no possibility of lien that I can think of.

This happened to me and I had to negotiate how much of the deposit I would retain unless I wanted to go to court. I was allowed to put the house on the market AFTER they didn't close then establish damages then ask them to release a certain amount. In my case, I got $7500 towards interest, taxes, lawn maintenance, and selling it for slightly less the second time.

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#9779369 - 04/09/20 06:38 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: 87ZCSi]
Risky Business Offline
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Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44789
 Originally Posted By: 87ZCSi
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
How does it work?

Let's say 50k down to broker held in escrow or with lawyer, buyer is unable to close due to x,y,z. Transaction falls apart, now deposit should technically belong to seller.

You don't agree to mutual release so then does it go to court, seller is defendant? Do you have to prove damages?

Why can't you sell the house to someone else in the meantime, I don't think the house is tied up as the deposit is a claim on the buyer not the seller, so no possibility of lien that I can think of.

This happened to me and I had to negotiate how much of the deposit I would retain unless I wanted to go to court. I was allowed to put the house on the market AFTER they didn't close then establish damages then ask them to release a certain amount. In my case, I got $7500 towards interest, taxes, lawn maintenance, and selling it for slightly less the second time.


Ok so that makes a big difference, you WERE allowed to list, but they had to breach contract first (not abide by closing date). That was my understanding.

I was confused because hator said the house is tied up even after for up to a year, which I don't understand why it would be. Either way maybe I am not understanding something...

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#9779370 - 04/09/20 06:39 AM Re: I started a blog (real estate) [Re: Hatorade]
Risky Business Offline
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme


Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44789
 Originally Posted By: Hatorade
From my understanding because there is a APS the sale is still binding unless a mutual release is done. Which is why the vendor can’t sell while they are disputing the APS.


Interesting, I will dig into this.

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