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#8932140 - 02/01/17 07:50 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Risky Business]
Choco 'Nuck Offline
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 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
l el

Your entire argument revolves around the assumption that 5 years ago, 3 years ago, 1 year ago we all knew as FACT that the market would only keep growing at double digits.

If we all knew this I am sure we would've purchased homes in a completely different manner. I'd buy as much home in the most desirable area and just swim in debt knowing I'd cash out big time...NO ONE KNEW the market is going to continue to be so stupid hence why some waited (sucks, but they had legitimate reason to), others bought and got lucky, etc, etc. I mean I can sit here and dwell when my buddy and I were this >.< close to buying a place in forest hill from our buddy's grandparents at the time (2014) for 1.3M. We got cold fee because we were both stretching ourselves thin so after inspection/financing all done we backed out. They sold the house on the market then, now it just resold for $2.3M.

Could've made $1m in 2 years....BUT I DIDN'T HAVE YOUR CRYSTAL BALL!!!

Since maybe 2014 we passed the equilibrium when it even makes sense to buy (unless of course we assume we continue at this trajectory). Doesn't make sense, let alone now in 2017 if you don't have another inflated property you are selling to move to something else you are fucked.


Chance favours the prepared mind....
You didn't need a crystal ball. You buy the house you could afford, knowing you were in it for the long haul. If it appreciated, then great. Otherwise, it just becomes woulda, shoulda, coulda, but didn't..

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#8932146 - 02/01/17 07:53 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Choco 'Nuck]
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I feel like a lot of this conversation is with the assumption that one's income is static - especially comments like "If I can even get $1.3M for mine - that means I got way more than double in < 10 years".

Given that we are likely all from the same/similar generation, 10 years worth of career life should not yield a static income. So assuming one's home has greatly increased in value over the years (same as every other home), you still have the opportunity to upgrade. PLUS, I would sure as hell hope that in 10 years, one's mortgage is damn near paid off. So actually, the answer is "yes".

If you bought 10, 5 or even 3 years ago....you can flip the home and buy something better. Presuming one's finances/mortgage has been managed appropriately. This should not be a problem for any home owner with a semi succesful career. For first time buyers or those with more/less static incomes, yes, this is a super crappy situation doe.

Also @Choco - I get free iodide pills too. I had ordered some XD (M postal code)
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#8932150 - 02/01/17 08:00 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: 4age]
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On the flip side not all careers provide increased value, it comes with more stress, outside of people's abilities. We all have a ceiling, mental or whatever where it's not worth it. What about losing your job or becoming irrelevant in the market place? You have to hedge both sides of the coin.

I also don't agree that anyone that bought 5-10 years ago is close to paying off their mortgage, even if it's only like 250k when they started. People aren't wired like that, I guarantee 90%+ have paid off half tops.

Also on the upgrading, unless you have horse shoes stuck up your ass (I am looking at you 4age) I think it's probably one of the worst things one can do in terms of wealth erosion. Imo you buy a house once ideally and you stay in it. Flipping/moving/upgrading is a loss leader...but I am sure someone who hasn't done the math will argue otherwise

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#8932160 - 02/01/17 08:15 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Risky Business]
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I won't deny that timing and luck has been a factor...but in the 2 homes i've lived in to date, flipping/moving/upgrading has WON ME HUGE. Horseshoe up the ass indeed! And as for careers, certainly, everyone has their own comfort level and ceiling, but please don't tell me that a serious career person worth their weight has been making the same money today as 10 years ago.

Losing jobs is always a factor. But then there's savings too to support these sorts of things, as well as insurance etc. No, none of those are perfect solutions for an imperfect situation, but it'll hold for an X duration of time. Or one can be too scared, do nothing and live in a condo, or rent and not buy...and sit there and complain about the market and not get in on it until..........it's time to go to a retirement home XD XD XD
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#8932164 - 02/01/17 08:20 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: 4age]
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Biggest difference is you upgraded homes on value, so you and others like you win.

Most upgrade on stupid shit like size - losing proposition.

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#8932184 - 02/01/17 08:39 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Risky Business]
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 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
Biggest difference is you upgraded homes on value, so you and others like you win.

Most upgrade on stupid shit like size - losing proposition.


if people do not consider homes an investment, then yes, i see that being a problem in those types of scenarios. buuuuuuut i would hope that anyone spending half a mil on something that they have to pay for 20+ years A FRICKIN INVESTMENT. And if yes, then consider all factors. A house is not a car. It is not something one pays off in 5 years and can dick around in. Anyway, to answer your original question, I'd pick Scarborough. If I let my cycling brain pick, I'd pick Brampton. Closest to velodrome XD XD XD
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#8932187 - 02/01/17 08:42 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: 4age]
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IMO, house prices is somewhat meaningless at this point.. what I really want to know is what % of the price is being put on a mortgage. To me, thats a better indication of market health.
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#8932189 - 02/01/17 08:45 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: phoenixrage]
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#8932195 - 02/01/17 08:49 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: phoenixrage]
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 Originally Posted By: phoenixrage
IMO, house prices is somewhat meaningless at this point.. what I really want to know is what % of the price is being put on a mortgage. To me, thats a better indication of market health.


It's foreign money.
So it's like 0% on mortgage XD XD XD
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#8932200 - 02/01/17 08:54 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Hatorade]
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 Originally Posted By: Hatorade
 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
wow everyone here is a millionaire, wow real estate investor proficiency omg.


It's a home not an investment, unless one keeps buying and flipping I suppose.


For a lot of people it's their nest egg for retirement.
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#8932208 - 02/01/17 08:59 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Just A Troll]
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^ well they are fucked then lol
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#8932215 - 02/01/17 09:03 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Risky Business]
4age Offline
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 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
^ well they are fucked then lol


so are people who expect to live off rrsp alone.
and in reality, many ppl barely have savings for retirement as is.
what do you suggest, great cfo of accounting things? buy 911s? XD
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#8932218 - 02/01/17 09:03 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Choco 'Nuck]
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 Originally Posted By: Choco 'Nuck
No included radioactivity, gonna pass.


Fixed!
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#8932229 - 02/01/17 09:09 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Just A Troll]
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Not foreign money driving Toronto housing market, its not Vancouver

http://www.moneysense.ca/spend/real-estate/foreign-buyers-arent-driving-toronto-real-estate-treb/

You all may still get your wish for a cooling market

http://www.bnn.ca/cooling-measures-increasingly-likely-for-toronto-housing-market-rbc-1.658570

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#8932234 - 02/01/17 09:14 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Risky Business]
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 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
^ well they are fucked then lol


Not sure about that. I think Toronto might experience a correction at some point but anyone below 50 will probably regain all their value lost during that correction before they retire. In the states homeowners have already made up their losses from the 2008 crash.

A few things to consider about Toronto:

1- Asians bailing on Vancouver are coming over here. Don't trust the TREB data, they're lying about the 5%! It's way more than that!
2- Americans ditching Trump will be looking at Toronto
3- Petrol price crash is bringing back lots of people to Toronto from out west.
4- The green belt has created an artificial bourgeoisie. People inside the Belt are pretty much protected from any housing crash outside of the belt. This is because land inside the belt is the most desirable.

I'm pretty sure there will be a correction. But it's not going to be as bad for Toronto as people might think. Some value will be lost, and the baby boomers will take the brunt of the correction, but younger generations will be fine.

Well... unless you're indebted to your eyeballs and can barely make house payments already.
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#8932238 - 02/01/17 09:21 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Just A Troll]
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I don't agree with points 2-4, but 1 is valid imo.

I think they are skirting around defining "foreign" buyer, hence why no definition. If Chiense come and make sizeable donation for landed immigrant status, but don't live here, they are not foreigners technically speaking, so they are excluded from the stat, but they are the root of the "foreign" problem. At least that's my speculation.

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#8932245 - 02/01/17 09:27 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Risky Business]
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Where I live it's about 50% chinese. And some units aren't occupied but we know they're "foreign" owned.

I constantly get mostly Chinese realtors knocking on my door with buyers ready to pay a lot more than market value.

And this is just for what's called an "executive townhouse".

So I'd say that #1 is pretty accurate! Way more Chinese, or foreigners in general, buyers than the TREB thinks.

Remember that BC was saying the foreign buyers only made up 4% of the market. But soon as the foreigner buyer's tax was introduced, sales dropped 25%. Hmmmm.....
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#8932251 - 02/01/17 09:32 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Choco 'Nuck]
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 Originally Posted By: Choco 'Nuck


Chance favours the prepared mind....
You didn't need a crystal ball. You buy the house you could afford, knowing you were in it for the long haul. If it appreciated, then great. Otherwise, it just becomes woulda, shoulda, coulda, but didn't..


Really? Prepared mind?
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#8932261 - 02/01/17 09:38 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: 4age]
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 Originally Posted By: 4age
I won't deny that timing and luck has been a factor...but in the 2 homes i've lived in to date, flipping/moving/upgrading has WON ME HUGE. Horseshoe up the ass indeed! And as for careers, certainly, everyone has their own comfort level and ceiling, but please don't tell me that a serious career person worth their weight has been making the same money today as 10 years ago.

Losing jobs is always a factor. But then there's savings too to support these sorts of things, as well as insurance etc. No, none of those are perfect solutions for an imperfect situation, but it'll hold for an X duration of time. Or one can be too scared, do nothing and live in a condo, or rent and not buy...and sit there and complain about the market and not get in on it until..........it's time to go to a retirement home XD XD XD


You must be old because 10 years ago I wasn't too far out of HS. Even if a person was out of college most have school dept to pay off. To assume that a person would be able to get into the market right away even with all this knowledge they would be at the very start of their career if everything lines up perfectly.

Typical CSI response lol

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#8932263 - 02/01/17 09:41 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Risky Business]
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 Originally Posted By: Risky Business
Biggest difference is you upgraded homes on value, so you and others like you win.

Most upgrade on stupid shit like size - losing proposition.


This can't be stated loud enough

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#8932266 - 02/01/17 09:43 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Wildout]
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 Originally Posted By: Wildout
 Originally Posted By: 4age
I won't deny that timing and luck has been a factor...but in the 2 homes i've lived in to date, flipping/moving/upgrading has WON ME HUGE. Horseshoe up the ass indeed! And as for careers, certainly, everyone has their own comfort level and ceiling, but please don't tell me that a serious career person worth their weight has been making the same money today as 10 years ago.

Losing jobs is always a factor. But then there's savings too to support these sorts of things, as well as insurance etc. No, none of those are perfect solutions for an imperfect situation, but it'll hold for an X duration of time. Or one can be too scared, do nothing and live in a condo, or rent and not buy...and sit there and complain about the market and not get in on it until..........it's time to go to a retirement home XD XD XD


You must be old because 10 years ago I wasn't too far out of HS. Even if a person was out of college most have school dept to pay off. To assume that a person would be able to get into the market right away even with all this knowledge they would be at the very start of their career if everything lines up perfectly.

Typical CSI response lol


FWIW i was born in '84
Bought first home about 5 years after graduation. Back then, this was all reasonable. Certainly, someone fresh out of school now is SUPER SCREWED.

But assuming we are all in and around the 30s, I don't see how this is a typical CSI response. My personal network (specifically folks in a similar age) also fit the same bill.
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#8932279 - 02/01/17 09:49 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Risky Business]
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Agree with this. It's not the non-residents that are the problem. It's the rich people that are coming into the country that are the problem. These people are probably not considered "foreign" buyers.

 Originally Posted By: Risky Business

I think they are skirting around defining "foreign" buyer, hence why no definition. If Chiense come and make sizeable donation for landed immigrant status, but don't live here, they are not foreigners technically speaking, so they are excluded from the stat, but they are the root of the "foreign" problem. At least that's my speculation.
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#8932317 - 02/01/17 10:18 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: 4age]
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 Originally Posted By: 4age
 Originally Posted By: Wildout
 Originally Posted By: 4age
I won't deny that timing and luck has been a factor...but in the 2 homes i've lived in to date, flipping/moving/upgrading has WON ME HUGE. Horseshoe up the ass indeed! And as for careers, certainly, everyone has their own comfort level and ceiling, but please don't tell me that a serious career person worth their weight has been making the same money today as 10 years ago.

Losing jobs is always a factor. But then there's savings too to support these sorts of things, as well as insurance etc. No, none of those are perfect solutions for an imperfect situation, but it'll hold for an X duration of time. Or one can be too scared, do nothing and live in a condo, or rent and not buy...and sit there and complain about the market and not get in on it until..........it's time to go to a retirement home XD XD XD


You must be old because 10 years ago I wasn't too far out of HS. Even if a person was out of college most have school dept to pay off. To assume that a person would be able to get into the market right away even with all this knowledge they would be at the very start of their career if everything lines up perfectly.

Typical CSI response lol


FWIW i was born in '84
Bought first home about 5 years after graduation. Back then, this was all reasonable. Certainly, someone fresh out of school now is SUPER SCREWED.

But assuming we are all in and around the 30s, I don't see how this is a typical CSI response. My personal network (specifically folks in a similar age) also fit the same bill.


Now I know you're full of shit. Most born in 84 are nowhere near close to paying off their mortgage. Most haven't even made a dent in their school debt. Buying a home is one thing saying that the majority are even remotely close to having it paid off especially those that have had zero help from parents in either school debt or house makes me think you're living in a dream world. Certainly not most of GTA, nevermind Toronto.

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#8932326 - 02/01/17 10:26 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Wildout]
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^ yep
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#8932333 - 02/01/17 10:35 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Wildout]
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 Originally Posted By: Wildout
 Originally Posted By: 4age
 Originally Posted By: Wildout
 Originally Posted By: 4age
I won't deny that timing and luck has been a factor...but in the 2 homes i've lived in to date, flipping/moving/upgrading has WON ME HUGE. Horseshoe up the ass indeed! And as for careers, certainly, everyone has their own comfort level and ceiling, but please don't tell me that a serious career person worth their weight has been making the same money today as 10 years ago.

Losing jobs is always a factor. But then there's savings too to support these sorts of things, as well as insurance etc. No, none of those are perfect solutions for an imperfect situation, but it'll hold for an X duration of time. Or one can be too scared, do nothing and live in a condo, or rent and not buy...and sit there and complain about the market and not get in on it until..........it's time to go to a retirement home XD XD XD


You must be old because 10 years ago I wasn't too far out of HS. Even if a person was out of college most have school dept to pay off. To assume that a person would be able to get into the market right away even with all this knowledge they would be at the very start of their career if everything lines up perfectly.

Typical CSI response lol


FWIW i was born in '84
Bought first home about 5 years after graduation. Back then, this was all reasonable. Certainly, someone fresh out of school now is SUPER SCREWED.

But assuming we are all in and around the 30s, I don't see how this is a typical CSI response. My personal network (specifically folks in a similar age) also fit the same bill.


Now I know you're full of shit. Most born in 84 are nowhere near close to paying off their mortgage. Most haven't even made a dent in their school debt. Buying a home is one thing saying that the majority are even remotely close to having it paid off especially those that have had zero help from parents in either school debt or house makes me think you're living in a dream world. Certainly not most of GTA, nevermind Toronto.


don't misconstrue what i am saying.
I mentioned that if someone was a home owner for more than 10 years, i would hope that a large portion of the mortgage has been paid off. If one plays the cards right, this would be the case.
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#8932355 - 02/01/17 10:51 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: 4age]
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I'm curious as to what people define as a "correction". A drop in housing prices of what, 50%?

There are many cities around the world, that were not at one time but have now become cities where only the "wealthy" (I use that term loosely) can afford to live. This comes from not only the price of homes, but also the cost of living there.

Why don't people think that Toronto, the 3rd or 4th largest city in North America and a hub for so many things, is one of those cities? Why would it not follow the path of London, New York, L.A., Melbourne/Syndey etc)?

From one perspective I don't believe that salaries have increased in Toronto as they have for other major cities, but in my opinion (and I don't know anything) I just don't see a major correction, maybe at most 10%. People will move outward and new people will move in (or their money will move in).

On a side note, my wife's aunt just sold her 3 bedroom place in Markham for $1.4M or $1.5M to someone from China who bought it for their daughter to live in while she goes to school

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#8932382 - 02/01/17 11:07 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: SuPeR-MaRiO]
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Good point. When I talk to my colleagues in NY, it's crazy how much some of these guys commute. Our office isn't even in Manhattan. I would say that the average commute from the people that I deal with is 45-60 minutes. There are a number of them that drive 1.5-2.5 hours each way in rush hour. It's not like they live in rural areas either. They live in suburbs located in NJ or CT. Commuting is just a necessity given that they either want to own a home or they want to live in more than a shoebox.

 Originally Posted By: SuPeR-MaRiO

Why don't people think that Toronto, the 3rd or 4th largest city in North America and a hub for so many things, is one of those cities? Why would it not follow the path of London, New York, L.A., Melbourne/Syndey etc)?

From one perspective I don't believe that salaries have increased in Toronto as they have for other major cities, but in my opinion (and I don't know anything) I just don't see a major correction, maybe at most 10%. People will move outward and new people will move in (or their money will move in).
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#8932402 - 02/01/17 11:18 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: SuPeR-MaRiO]
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 Originally Posted By: SuPeR-MaRiO
I'm curious as to what people define as a "correction". A drop in housing prices of what, 50%?

There are many cities around the world, that were not at one time but have now become cities where only the "wealthy" (I use that term loosely) can afford to live. This comes from not only the price of homes, but also the cost of living there.

Why don't people think that Toronto, the 3rd or 4th largest city in North America and a hub for so many things, is one of those cities? Why would it not follow the path of London, New York, L.A., Melbourne/Syndey etc)?

From one perspective I don't believe that salaries have increased in Toronto as they have for other major cities, but in my opinion (and I don't know anything) I just don't see a major correction, maybe at most 10%. People will move outward and new people will move in (or their money will move in).

On a side note, my wife's aunt just sold her 3 bedroom place in Markham for $1.4M or $1.5M to someone from China who bought it for their daughter to live in while she goes to school


You kind of answered your question.

I am not going to speculate on pullback %, I have no idea.

What happens if/when Canada is not that attractive to Chinese/Iranians with money? Unlikely, but possible. But that's not really the concern, what happens if/when China's economy goes to shit and the same people that parked their money here in real estate (which is all it is for them, nothing else) need that money in recession and want to cash out. They are responsible for creating the bubble this fast, it will drop even faster if/when that happens.

We can't be oblivious to that.

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#8932440 - 02/01/17 11:32 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Risky Business]
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What happens is Jeff finally buys a house!

Then we party.
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#8932471 - 02/01/17 11:47 AM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: LNXGUY]
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He never will. He's been talking about it for years now...
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'04 Volk GTC - 245-35-19F/275-35-19R (Sold to a farm boi)
I thought Spark was a robot from the old movie and I kind of remember seeing him telling some engineer showing the equation for a clear metal that the guy would event years later - porschetr

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#8932495 - 02/01/17 12:01 PM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Hatorade]
JEFFOS Offline
Post Master Supreme


Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 29139
Loc: Toronto
I'll just stack my money I guess and maybe rent.

Also for those saying there isn't a heavy outside Asian side to this trust me I'm in the open houses and home visits every week. 90-95% of the realtors cards left (when on a private visit) are Asian often without any English even on the card. For open houses it's very rare for me not to be the only non Asian there (like I've said before which is fine if you're going to live here and contribute to the ecosystem) but many are just the agents themselves on the phone.

Now I get a kick out of taking a pictures of these situations and sending to my friends with "just hanging around with my investor crew this weekend"
_________________________
-Jeff

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#8932499 - 02/01/17 12:04 PM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: JEFFOS]
Risky Business Offline
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme


Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44789
They are not foreigners tho, A NEW STUDY SAID SO
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#8932502 - 02/01/17 12:06 PM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Risky Business]
JEFFOS Offline
Post Master Supreme


Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 29139
Loc: Toronto
Haha yes I must have been mistaken
_________________________
-Jeff

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#8932514 - 02/01/17 12:15 PM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Hatorade]
Risky Business Offline
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme


Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44789
 Originally Posted By: Hatorade
He never will. He's been talking about it for years now...


Can you blame him? I wouldn't be comfortable at all buying regardless of my income/downpayment/etc. It's a big gamble and burden to carry right now.

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#8932519 - 02/01/17 12:19 PM Re: Brampton vs. Barrie vs. Oshawa vs. Scarborough [Re: Risky Business]
Senor Eduardo_82 Offline
miataist
Post Master Supreme


Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 38036
Loc: Ca�ada
What burden? They can probably pay cash for the whole thing by now
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